Paper recorded by Signals 4 on 2026-09-02 in cs.AI. Abstract reproduced from arXiv; link to the original below.
Published 2026-09-02 on arXiv · recorded by Signals 4 on 2026-09-03
Category: cs.AI · 人工智能 · first seen 2026-09-03
People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may implicitly trust that these forecasts fall out of a coherent world model. In this paper, we evaluate the coherence of language model probabilistic forecasts through a proce