A Later Test Set Is Not a New Domain: Pretraining Familiarity Survives a Contamination-Free Hold-Out

Paper recorded by Signals 4 on 2026-09-09 in cs.LG. Abstract reproduced from arXiv; link to the original below.

Published 2026-09-09 on arXiv · recorded by Signals 4 on 2026-09-10

Category: cs.LG · 机器学习 · first seen 2026-09-10

Abstract

Time-series foundation models are evaluated almost exclusively on public archives that predate them, so a strong score cannot be separated from having seen the test set during pretraining. The obvious remedy is a hold-out that postdates the models. We build one: thirteen forecasters -- four classical, three trained per dataset, six pretrained -- on seven groups drawn from five domains, every obser

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